| Factor | Raw β | Std β | OLS β | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | +1.5268 | +3.4739 | +1.5337 | 3.47 |
| SPY | +0.1161 | +0.2571 | +0.1121 | 0.26 |
| TLT | -0.0115 | -0.0232 | -0.0117 | 0.02 |
| DBC | +0.0251 | +0.0675 | +0.0242 | 0.07 |
| TIP | -0.0362 | -0.0293 | -0.0436 | 0.03 |
| HYG | +0.2150 | +0.2121 | +0.2186 | 0.21 |
| DXY | -0.7060 | -0.6466 | -0.6989 | 0.65 |
| EEM | +0.4836 | +1.1701 | +0.4968 | 1.17 |
| FXI | -0.1647 | -0.6595 | -0.1715 | 0.66 |
Gold (β=1.53): Dominant driver by far. 1 standard deviation move in gold → 3.5σ move in GDX. Miners are levered gold.
EEM (β=0.48): Significant EM equity exposure. Miners are global-cyclical, not just gold.
DXY (β=-0.71): Strong negative dollar beta. Weak dollar = strong miners. This is partially collinear with gold but adds explanatory power independently.
FXI (β=-0.16): Negative China exposure after controlling for EM. Miners benefit from China weakness — possibly via capital rotation from China into real assets.
TLT, TIP, DBC: Near zero. Rate duration and broad commodities add nothing once you have gold + equity + FX factors. Don't hedge GDX with bonds.